Daviess County may be past the peak of the current COVID-19 wave after the number of new cases dropped significantly for the first time. Overall those unvaccinated have accounted for most of the hospitalizations. But on the last day of January, there were a couple more vaccinated than unvaccinated patients in critical care and intubated at Owensboro Health Regional Hospital, according to the latest update regarding COVID-19 positive patients.
Owensboro Times created four graphics to help break down the latest numbers. (Editor’s note: Any references to hospital numbers refers to patients specifically at Owensboro Health Regional Hospital and were pulled from their data.)
Hospitalizations, critical care, and intubations
The total number of hospitalizations remained relatively steady, though a larger portion of that total is composed of vaccinated patients. In early January, the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated patients was nearly 1:4. However, the ratio to end the month was roughly 2:3.
Similar to the trend seen in overall hospitalizations, the number of vaccinated patients in critical care and intubated have risen over the last couple of weeks.
In the middle of January, there were three reports where all critical care and intubated patients with COVID-19 were unvaccinated. Due to opposite trends, the number of vaccinated patients surpassed the number of those without a shot according to data from the last day of the month.
Incidence rate
With the new year came a new spike in COVID-19 cases. Throughout November, the 7-day average for new cases per 100,000 people reported in Daviess County remained below 50. That number rose and had some fluctuation through December, but still remained below 75.
The spike began at the start of the new year. With one exception, each new report documented a rise in the 7-day incidence rate. The Jan. 25 update showed the biggest jump — from an average of 207 cases daily to 317 — while the Jan. 28 update showed a peak of 338 cases.
Tuesday’s update showed a significant drop to an average of 290 cases per day. Green River District Health Department Director Clay Horton said it was good to see some improvement and the county may be on the back side of the current surge, but said COVID-19 is still a risk.
“Case rates of Covid-19 clearly have declined over the last week,” Horton said. “I think it is likely that we are past the peak of this current wave. However, rates of transmission are still quite high and it is possible over the next several weeks to see a small rebound or two in our incidence rates. But overall, I expect to see our rates continue to decline over the next several weeks.”
Horton said there are a lot of variables that make it difficult to predict just how quickly the case rates will fall, but said the county should continue to see a decline over the next month or two.
Regarding another potential surge, Horton said he hasn’t heard of anything just yet that indicates another wave like the last few.
“The continued evolution of the virus into new variants that could be more severe or more efficient at evading our immune responses is something we will continue to worry about,” he said. “We very well may see additional surges caused by new variants. I can’t say if or when though. There are a lot of tools we have now that we didn’t have during some of the previous waves that makes me think we are better prepared to cope.”
Horton added, “We just have to be willing as a society to do things like stay up to date on vaccinations, test when we have symptoms or have been exposed to COVID-19, use masks especially when we know there is increased community transmission in our area, and stay home when we are sick. I expect we will continue to see advancements with treatments, too. If we can learn from our experiences, I think future surges may be less disruptive.”
