Even though the Ohio River isn’t expected to crest anywhere near record levels, National Weather Service officials say the region is still facing a “very dangerous situation” as days of heavy rain threaten widespread flash flooding. Forecasters say the rainfall itself could be historic, with totals between 7 and 12 inches expected through Saturday — and the risk for major flooding is far from the riverbanks.
Mary Lamm, Service Hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Paducah, said several factors help explain the apparent contradiction — including how low the river is to start and the limitations of the current forecast window.
“If the river is low enough, it can take more water and crest at a lower level that’s already close to flood stage,” Lamm said. “Also, not all of the rain is accounted for in the forecast. We only have 72 hours in our official forecast, and we are still looking at 48 to 60 hours of rainfall beyond that. The forecast will go up.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, the NOAA forecast showed the Ohio River cresting at 42.6 feet — well below the record of 54.8 feet and even lower than the 47.3-foot crest recorded in 2018. Lamm said that 2018 event, which left portions of Smothers Park underwater, could be a helpful point of comparison for what might happen this week.
Still, the more immediate threat will come from widespread flash flooding over several days. The National Weather Service expects 7–12 inches of rain across the region between Wednesday and Saturday, with localized totals likely to be even higher. That amount of rainfall in a short time is extremely rare, Lamm said.
“We are using the word ‘historic’ because climatologically, this has an annual recurrence interval of 1% — or a 1 in 100 chance of occurring,” she said.
The heaviest rain is expected to fall in waves, with the potential for multiple rounds of intense storms. Lamm said the ground will become increasingly saturated as the week progresses, making each new round of rain more dangerous.
“The heaviest rains may fall on Saturday, after we are certainly primed going into the weekend,” she said. “There will be lulls which may help some areas recover before the next round enters the picture. After the faster rises in ditches, creeks, and rivers, water will just spread out and be slow to fall — which will lead to longer, more areal flood warnings.”
Lamm emphasized that this is not a typical rain event, and people should not underestimate the risk.
“This is going to be a very dangerous situation,” she said. “This is not the time to sightsee or ‘play’ in the water with recreational vehicles. Now is a good time to plan on what you will do if water approaches your home or if you come across water on your drive in the next few days. If there is a barricade or water covering (or flowing) across the road, turn around and go another way.”
A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning, and the Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been raised to Level 4 (High Risk) — the highest category available.
The National Weather Service has also upgraded the area to a Level 4 out of 5 tornado risk for Wednesday evening, with damaging winds and large hail possible. The highest tornado potential is between 3 p.m. and 11 p.m. Wednesday, but the threat may linger until the main line of storms clears overnight, the NWS said.
